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Population 2017

In just 10 years, Canada will celebrate 150 years as a nation. Over its history, the population has changed dramatically; in sheer numbers alone, by 2017, it will have increased by a factor of ten. Significant social, economic and demographic changes continue to shape the population, suggesting a 2017 population that will live longer, be better educated and considerably more ethno-culturally diverse, among other characteristics.

Looking back, since 1967, when Canada turned 100, we can note many substantial changes. As recently as the 1980s and 90s, important socio-economic drivers emerged. At the time, these drivers were not fully appreciated and understood, for example: the impact of increased education and high levels of youth unemployment on delaying labour market trajectories, and their influence on income statistics and incomeinequality; the influence of two-earner families on shifting the distribution of economic risk and security; the unanticipated impact of increased education on increasing life-course labour supply. These drivers have quite profoundly changed who we are and how we live today.

This project will attempt to identify which demographic drivers are likely to emerge and be significant in 2017, and it will attempt to discern their importance for social policies. For example, in 2017, with Canada in the middle of the retirement of baby-boomers, labour market pressures will be substantially different from what they are today. This may improve opportunities for younger generations. After decades of labour market expansion, Canada will experience decades of labour market contraction. If well understood and policies are adapted to account for it, this may lead to social and economic gains. There will be a need for a continued increase in productivity if the economy is to sustain the population. As a result of the tightening labour supply, issues such as increased tensions between work and family life will need to be taken into account, which may lead to economic and social policies that promote flexibility.

A second important contribution of the project will be in its life-course approach. Events and transitions throughout life have long-term implications which are sometimes underestimated when typical cross-sectional analysis is used. This approach will allow us to analyze the likely economic and social context in 2017 based on decisions Canadians make today — and those they are likely to make between now and then.

This powerful analysis is now possible with new, innovative micro-simulation models, such as Statistics Canada’s LifePaths and PopSim models. For example, young Canadians currently achieving higher education levels compared to previous cohorts will likely improve their job prospects and earnings over their entire working lives. But higher education may also postpone union formation and the arrival of their first child. The new tools allow us to make connections between various life-course trajectories, and they even allow us to create “what-if” scenarios to test various policy scenarios.

The project’s third important contribution will be to highlight how much more diverse the Canadian population will be in the future. For example, the project will highlight the demographic increase of the population of First Nations, immigration, the changing spatial dimension of where Canadians live (e.g. provincial distribution, urban/rural split), the diversity in family formation and work trajectories, the diasporas living in Canada and abroad, religions, languages, and more.

Project Leader

Alain Denhez, Senior Director